The Origin of World War One; Part One.

This is going to be the first in a 5 part series on the origin of world war one. I believe and intend to relate that this conflict has done more to shape both this century and the last than any other event in any of the last 200 years. The source and structure of this series will be based upon a book called The Origins of World War I 1871-1914 by Joachim Remak.

Part One: The Age of Bismarck: European Diplomacy 1871-1890

The stage in 1871 is thus: The Franco-Prussian war (France vs. Essentially “Germany”) of 1870-1871 was finished with a Prussian victory. The peace of Frankfurt that formally ended the war in may of 71 cost France an indemnity of five billion francs pain to the German empire and the surrender of the province of Alsace and a substantial portion of Loraine. France had failed in it long time cause. That being the prevention of a unified and strong German nation.

At this time Prussia still had a king who still had power, however much of the ruling of the nation was done by it prime minister Otto von Bismarck, who had been thus since 1862. Bismarck was chancellor of the German Empire from 1871 (its inception) until 1890. After this great accomplishment what Bismarck wanted most was calm, he felt strongly that Germany should henceforth consolidate her gains and seek no new ones, in Europe or over seas. The balance of power had been changed drastically and Bismarck didn’t want to give the surrounding nations any more cause to unite against German might that it had already.

Though the effects of these two events (Annexation Alsace/Lorraine and Change European power) were happy ones for the German empire the two problems proved to stubborn beyond all of Bismarck’s skill.

After Prussia victory over Austria in 1866 Bismarck had fiercely argued against the “victors peace” that the king and generals had in mind. In the end the peace with Austria was a generous one which caused the dissolution of any hostility Austria still held, Bismarck’s goal of friendship with the former enemy was realized.

This scene was not repeated in 1871 during negotiations with France. In fact the fortress of Mets in Lorraine was created to secure Germany against any possible French attack. The people, the military, and the King had unanimously desired it and Bismarck felt that nothing could be done to remove anti-German sentiment in France. The fortress however created a unique paradox. The inhabitance of Alsace Lorraine were still French despite their recent German citizenship and the construction of a fortress was a slap in the face its French inhabitance would not bear. Though the fort was able to hold back a major French army in 1914 it presence was one of the major factors which contributed to the two armies marching toward each other in the first place.

Of the five powers that had existed prior to the Franco-Prussian war two had retained their state of power, England and Russia. Two had been weakened, France and Austria, and One, Germany, had be come greatly strengthened.

Knowing that France would not accept her new station Bismarck’s goal became to isolate his enemy, his solution was three fold and diplomatic in nature. Firstly he would encourage and support French expansion into North Africa and China, Second he would hold Germany back from creating her own colonies, and thirdly was to keep French desire for revenge in check by ensuring her inability to find allies stating “In a world Governed by five powers, try to make three friends.”

The realization of this attempt to gain allies in Europe was initially manifested by the formation of the Three Emperors’ League of 1873. The treaty was between Germany Austria and Russia. In made sense in that Germany, being centrally located between the five powers desperately wanted to avoid a two front war. This would require him to split his forces between fighting on his eastern front (where Austria and Russia are) and his western front (France and England). The League was troubled however in that Austria and Russia were getting in each others way in Southeastern Europe. This Leagues first real test, the Congress of Berlin, nearly turned out to be its last.

The issues on the table at the Congress of Berlin was between Austria and Russia about the treaty of San Stefano. Russia had been for a long time a large nation with many people but very poor partly due to their inability to engage in and benefit from the trade/business taking place in the Mediterranean. Though Russia doesn’t have land on the Mediterranean it does have land on the black sea which can access the Mediterranean via a natural canal called the Dardanelles, measuring 38 miles long and about 2.5 miles wide. At the time Turkey, a rapidly expiring empire (called the Old man of Europe), controlled the straight. Part of the reason Turkey had survived so long is that its many enemies, ironically, couldn’t agree how to divide its land up. Finally in 1877 Russia made up its mind to take the Dardanelles. The excuse it had presented was that its long time mission had been to free their Slavic brothers who had been concord by the Turks, this motive wan known as Pan-Slavism. After the short military action Turkey had been effectively expelled from Europe, it influence replaced by Russia. In essence the problem Austria had with this was that it also was made up of a great diversity of cultures, including Slavs. The Multiethnic coalition had worked well for Austria and they were concerned that so much renewed racial tension in the area of the Balkans would ignite disloyalty in their own Slavic people there by further crippling Austria in the face of Russian Gain.

Austria had considered fighting to keep Russia away from the Dardanelles and the Balkans (the area to the north of the Dardanelles) but Bismarck’s strong platform of peace kept anyone from fighting. I the summer of 1878 the Congress of Berlin was called to reconsider the treaty of San Stefano which allowed a Russian presence in the Balkans and their ownership of the Dardanelles. At the Congress the Balkans were divided up and new countries were created and allowed to govern them selves. The reality was that there was such a mixture of cultures and ethnicities in the area that none of the new Balkan nations felt they had been fairly treated. In addition Russia had been excluded from their much coveted route to the Mediterranean. All of the other four powers, including France, had interests in this part of the Med and were all had some gain in the Congress. Germany alone asked nothing, willing to play the noble role of negotiator. As well Bulgarians in particular would not be able to reconcile themselves to the idea of a “Greater Bulgaria” that San Stefano had originally allowed for. The results of the Congress were far reaching and complicated, most notably however was the ominous estrangement between Russia and Germany.

The friction between Russia and Austria left Bismarck seething. He had labored to find a compromise acceptable to both sides but with out giving Russia everything she wanted every one from the Tsar to the inspired press was through with Germany and Austria.

Forced to make the next move, Bismarck replaced the Three Emperors’ League with The Dual Alliance in 1879. This Treaty between Austria and German stated that should Russia attack either country the other would come to its aid. The treaty only applied to Russian aggression or if Russia joined forces with another country attacking Germany or Austria. This treaty received strong criticism from Bismarck’s critics. Primarily because it forced Russia to look for allies elsewhere, specifically in France. Though this didn’t worry Bismarck as he felt that geographic and ideological isolation would lead to diplomatic isolation as well.

His theory’s would be vindicated when, just as the Dual Alliance was being signed, the Russians suggested a Russo-German treaty. Bismarck wanted Austria to be included and though it took some convincing, in 1881 with the Three Emperors’ League was renewed. Though this time the treaties scope was much more broad. Should any of the three powers find it self at war the other two countries would remain neutral. The statues of the Dual Alliance were still maintained in the background however. This did much to reduce the fear of a dual front war that had plagued Bismarck during his office.

The treaty also addressed the reason for its dissolution in the first place, the division of the ailing Turkish empire. Specifically that neutrality would only be upheld in the case of war with Turkey if the results (spoils) of the war were agreed up first. The other particulars of the treaty read that Austria was allowed to annex Bosnia-Herzegovina (Balkan Countries) at what ever time they deemed appropriate in exchange for the Dardanelles being kept closed to warships. Russia had some concerns about the powerful British navy entering the Black Sea with its sights set on her costal cities, having lost much of her black sea fleet in an earlier conflict.

In 1882 the budding empire of Italy, having only been united as recently and Germany, sought to gain entrance to the Three Emperors’ League. Bismarck’s exceptional enthusiasm was muted though inwardly the addition of a 4^th power pleased him greatly. Because of opposing interests in the Balkans Italy and Austria despised each other. Despite this difference a treaty was created called the Triple alliance, in 1882. it stated that should France attack, with out direct provocation, Germany that Italy would come to her aid. It also stated that Germany would aid Italy should they be attacked by France. At this point Germany was allied with three of the powers in Europe on good terms with England, only leaving France. If only Bismarck could keep his friends from coming to blows with one another he had no need to fear France. This proved to be more than he could handle. In 1885 a new Balkan crisis unfolded which once more forced Bismarck to play his least favorite roll, arbiter between Russia and Austria.

The treaty of San Stefano had taken more away from Bulgaria than it had any other Balkan nation, seeing an opportunity to take back what they though was theirs a revolt broke out. With speed and skill Bulgarian forces routed Serbian Greek and Macedonian opposition. This triumph was too great for Russia’s comfort. The Tsar now threatened to occupy Bulgaria and put a more compliant ruler on the throne. This move brought Austria on the scene again. Increased Bulgarian influence in the Balkans meant increased Russian power there as well, though Russia didn’t approve of the rash action of its little brother they did stand to gain from it. Fearing divided loyalties in its own people Austria sought British assistance and again, never resulting in blows, gained a diplomatic victory over Russia in the area. The Russians were infuriated. Bismarck had tried to remain neutral but couldn’t give total support to the Russian cause as they had demanded. In the end the Three Emperors’ League was done.

In 1887 Russia refused to renew the Three Emperors’ treaty, as they despised Austria, instead agreeing that if either country found itself at war the other would maintain benevolent neutrality. It wasn’t what Bismarck wanted but it was better than nothing. The new agreement was called the reinsurance treaty. It only stipulated that if Russia attacked Austria or Germany attacked France the other partner would have freedom of action.

Bismarck seemed to have given much more than he had gained, however Russian gains were largely paper ones. Bismarck’s promise to keep war ships out of the straight wasn’t hard to perform as he’d been negotiating with Britain, Austria, and Italy to maintain things as they were in the Mediterranean (No foreign warships in the black seas as long as Russia is contained there). In this way his promises to Russia were effectively neutralized.

In perhaps the most intricate series of diplomatic maneuvers in his career Bismarck allowed the conditions of his treaties to be leaked. To impose some sensible caution on the Russians in the Balkans, he let then know about the Dual alliance with Austria. So that they might have no doubt about the strength of the coalition that would face them should the try to pocket the Dardanelles, he let them know about the Mediterranean agreement as well. The Austrians, in their turn, had the Reinsurance Treaty brought to their attention; it would be a good reminder that German aid was not automatic. Finally he let the French learn about the Triple Alliance and the Mediterranean Agreement; it would do them no harm to realize that the world contained potential enemies other that the occupiers of Alsace.

If Bismarck’s treaties are a few shades to complicated to fully understand what needs to be said for them is that they worked, his overriding goal of maintaining peace was accomplished. How well the system would work with out its original designer was a different questions. In 1890 the answer came, Bismarck had to step down as chancellor because of policy differences between him and the new Emperor, William II. The primary reason was that the young monarch found it to difficult to get along with a national monument for a chancellor.

As we look back on 20 years of Bismarck chancellorship it is as astonishing as ever. He’d voluntarily restrained Germany’s quest for power, the sky was the fools limit, not his. The multiplicity of the alliances made Austria and Russia contain their ambition as well as leaving France isolated and Germany with as much power as it could manage. The eventual diplomatic alignment in 1914 was as remote as quantum theory. As near as one could tell in 1890 peace was the natural state of man.